Mafia Day 2

[bloodyaftertaste]

Everyone was at the bar that night trying to drink away the memories that they had in fact killed someone that day and the even more horrifying fact that they just might have been innocent. It was getting late and most everyone was heading home. Spoon being the light weight that he was, was drunk off his ass and trying to find his way home. That's when some men approached him asking him if he needed help. He was glad to take their help as he couldn't even tell his left from his right anymore.

"Thanks guys," Spoon slurred as he spoke.

"Oh it's no problem at all...dood"

At the finial word Spoon realized just who's company he was enjoying. As he tried to run away he was tripped by a wooden peg leg and fell flat on his face. One sat on him while others bound his feet and hands. Another gagged him by sticking a dynamite stick in his mouth and others started attaching more explosives to the rest of him. They dragged him through the woods and to a giant catapult. Fear grew in Spoon's eyes, but he was helpless to do anything. They placed him in it and lit all the explosives on fire. As they set him up for launch one of them spoke to him.

"Now you will know what it's like to die like a prinny, dood." At the word "dood" they cut the rope launching him into the air. He landed right in the middle of town square exploding on impact.

Everyone rushed outside at the loud explosion and saw bits and pieces of Spoon laying about. Horrified, they all knew that their actions the day before were warranted and that they must continue.

*******

Day 2: Please make your votes

[melody angel]

so is Spoon still voteing?

[bloodyaftertaste]

Zatrox and Spoon can no longer vote. They are both dead. They can still talk in here, but no giving away their positions, though most people should realize that people who die off in the night are not mafia, but who knows if they were townies or the doctor. Also I would hope they don't try to influence people either.

[melody angel]

then i vote for ubi.

[XCronoX]

I vote for Mel.

[dodge]

lol.
i vote for Crono

dodge

[lopez]

Hmm....I was going for spoon...but umm....

I can't decide between crono or ubi....but I still have this gut feeling it's ubi so,

My vote: Ubi

[Ubiquitor]

How strange that I still live. Here are the odds for the day: if zatrox was a mafioso, we have nearly a 50% chance of survival; if zatrox was innocent, we have less than 1/7 chance (if the mafia win by the end of the day, then zatrox and today's victim were innocent). One thing is certain: spoon was innocent. The simplistic explanation for spoon's death would be to protect melody and leave my opposition alive; however, if the mafia were cunning (and if I were one, they would be), the obvious implication would be a decoy, which would make me the likely suspect and melody innocent (relatively). Given my current predicament, I can only vote for mel.

[bloodyaftertaste]

So so far its a tie between Mel with 2 votes and Ubi with 2. Crono has one. If a decision cannot be made then we move into the night phase with no one killed giving the mafia the upper hand no matter what. So discuss some more and see if you guys can come up with some sort of conclusion.

[Ubiquitor]

How long do we have until the night phase? Incidentally, if a tie leads to no death rather than a random death (via coin flip or the like), then a 2 (townie) against 2 (mafia) is equivalent to a mafia win (this would also decrease the odds of my simulations); thus, failure to make a definitive choice will result in a 3/10 chance if zatrox were mafioso or a loss (2 against 2) if zatrox were not.

[spoonthehune]

I died because I was drunk!?

[Ubiquitor]

I cannot change my vote unless certain other votes are changed first (unilaterally changing from mel to crono earns me nothing, but will definitively lead to my demise). Assuming non-cooperative maneuvers, mel can change from ubi to crono without harm to self (both are voting for mel). Sir Lopez could make any decision without personal harm. Dodge could easily end the stalemate, but will unlikely return before the phase end. Crono could make the decision definitive by changing vote from mel to ubi; however, this will result in my changing vote from mel to crono, which will give mel and lopez absolute power in deciding who would lose among crono and ubi.

[Ubiquitor]

Upon careful deliberation, I have made a horrifying discovery; 2 (townies) against 1 (mafioso) has better odds than 3 (townies) against 1 (mafioso). Consider this: I am in the precarious situation where my inaction will lead to no death in the day-phase. If zatrox was not a mafioso and either an innocent is killed or nothing happens, then the townies will lose (1 against 2 and 2 against 2 are both losses); however, if zatrox was a mafioso, then a stalemate would lead to 3 against 1, and my death would lead to 2 against 1. In 3 on 1, there is a 1/4 chance of winning (unless the doctor is still alive, whereas the odds are increased to possibly 3/10); if an innocent is chosen, then 1 on 1 results in a definitive loss. In 2 on 1, there is a 1/3 chance of winning.

I prefer not to die; however, a stalemate in this scenario is worse. Therefore, I change my vote from mel to Sir Lopez.

Current tally:

Ubiquitor: 2
melody angel: 1
lopez: 1
XcronoX: 1
dodge: 0

[melody angel]

i change my vote to XcronoX as well.

[XCronoX]

Well I guess now we all know who the 2 mafioso are. *glares at mel and dodge*